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Semiconductor ETF STOCK

SMH · US Equity
$561.1900
+0.84% (24h)
STRONG SELL High conviction 3/3 TF 2.5x R:R Breakout weak_trending Suggested: 3x Leverage
Score: 79/100 Strategy: Breakout

Strategy Fit Scores

Each strategy re-weights the same indicators for its style (e.g. Momentum values RSI/volume more, Position values trend more). Fit score shows how well this coin matches each strategy — it is separate from the main signal score shown above. Stop/TP style: ATR + S/R + Fib. You can open using any strategy with fit ≥38.

Breakout Best Fit STRONG_SELL fit 78
SL $567.0400 · TP1 $557.4900
Mean Reversion STRONG_SELL fit 76
SL $567.0400 · TP1 $557.4900
Momentum STRONG_SELL fit 76
SL $567.0400 · TP1 $557.4900
Scalping STRONG_SELL fit 71
SL $567.0400 · TP1 $557.4900
Position SELL fit 64
SL $577.8700 · TP1 $531.1700
Swing SELL fit 64
SL $574.5300 · TP1 $543.1800
Trend Following SELL fit 60
SL $574.5300 · TP1 $543.1800

Timeframe Analysis

15m STRONG SELL (83) RSI 38.45 ADX 38.57
1H STRONG SELL (80) RSI 35.89 ADX 26.43
4H SELL (66) RSI 40.17 ADX 25.97
1D SELL (59) RSI 42.93 ADX 20.43
1W BUY (64) RSI 58.05 ADX 35.72

Score Breakdown

Every signal, filter, and market condition that contributed to the final score of 79. Green = adds to score, Red = reduces score.

1D Timeframe (40%)
59/100 raw · BEAR · Mixed regime – 1D=40% / 4H=35% / 1H=25%
+24
→ 24
4H Timeframe (35%)
66/100 raw · BEAR
+23
→ 47
1H Timeframe (25%)
80/100 raw · BEAR
+20
→ 67
15m Micro-Structure
83/100 raw · BEAR (aligned)
+3
→ 70
1W Macro Trend
64/100 raw · BULL (macro divergence)
-1
→ 69
Divergence Modifier
1H bear div
+5
→ 74
TF Consensus
Strong alignment: 80% direction agreement, scores within 9 pts
+5
→ 79
Final Score
79

Every Factor by Timeframe

Click any dimension row to expand every sub-factor that contributed to that score. Green = bullish points, Red = bearish points, Grey = neutral.

Trend /20 — EMA alignment, ADX strength, SMA stack
15 /1H
15 /4H
13 /1D
14 blend
▶
Momentum /20 — RSI, MACD, Stochastic, momentum acceleration
15 /1H
9 /4H
7 /1D
10 blend
▶
Volume /20 — Relative volume, VWAP position, volume trend
16 /1H
9 /4H
7 /1D
10 blend
▶
Structure /20 — Market structure, S/R, BB position, OBs, FVGs, liquidity, patterns
20 /1H
20 /4H
20 /1D
20 blend
▶
Volatility /10 — BB Squeeze, ATR volatility state, ADX trend quality
5 /1H
5 /4H
3 /1D
4 blend
▶
Risk Quality /10 — S/R range tightness, ATR, ADX clarity, data length
9 /1H
8 /4H
9 /1D
9 blend
▶

Trade Levels

Entry
$561.1900
Stop Loss
$574.5300
TP 1
$543.1800
TP 2
$527.8400
TP 3
$507.8300
Risk / Reward
2.5x

Why Take This Trade

All 3 timeframes agree - strong confluence
Strategy: Breakout (best fit for weak_trending regime)
1H: STRONG SELL (80/100) | 4H: SELL (66/100) | 1D: SELL (59/100)
Daily trend strong - aligned with higher timeframe
Momentum confirming on 1H
Market structure favorable
Bearish divergence (OBV) – potential top forming
1H: 1 bearish order block(s) in scope
1H: 2 bearish FVG zone(s) present
1H: Liquidity clusters (above/below) in view
4H: 2 bearish FVG zone(s) present
4H: Liquidity clusters (above/below) in view
1D: 2 bearish order block(s) in scope
1D: Liquidity clusters (above/below) in view
1H: Bearish chart pattern: Head & Shoulders (with trend, close beyond boundary, near completion, high volume, aged 182b ×0.30) [83% win rate] 100% complete
1H: Bearish chart pattern: Triple Top (with trend, breakout vol spike, high volume, aged 18b ×0.30) [79% win rate] 43% complete
1H: Bearish chart pattern: Double Top (with trend, high volume, aged 18b ×0.30) [72% win rate] 45% complete
1H: Bearish chart pattern: Rounding Top (observed 77% (n=1323), with trend, near completion, high volume, aged 29b ×0.30) [62% win rate] 95% complete
4H: Bearish chart pattern: Head & Shoulders (with trend, close beyond boundary, near completion, aged 42b ×0.30) [83% win rate] 100% complete
4H: Bearish chart pattern: Triple Top (with trend, close beyond boundary, near completion, aged 35b ×0.30) [79% win rate] 100% complete
4H: Bearish chart pattern: Double Top (with trend, close beyond boundary, near completion, aged 35b ×0.30) [72% win rate] 100% complete
1D: Bearish chart pattern: Head & Shoulders (with trend, close beyond boundary, near completion, aged 17b ×0.30) [83% win rate] 100% complete
1D: Bearish chart pattern: Triple Top (with trend, aged 17b ×0.30) [79% win rate] 75% complete
1D: Bearish chart pattern: Double Top (with trend, aged 17b ×0.30) [72% win rate] 75% complete
Volume POC at $632.67
Fib 0.618 at $588.39

Why NOT Take This Trade

Signals arguing against this trade direction. Weigh these carefully.

1H: Bullish chart pattern: Double Bottom (observed 24% (n=3020), breakout vol spike, high volume, aged 6b ×0.50) [72% win rate] 5% complete
4H: Bullish chart pattern: Double Bottom (observed 24% (n=3020), aged 28b ×0.30) [72% win rate] 0% complete
4H: Bullish chart pattern: V-Bottom (Spike) (near completion, aged 7b ×0.45) [58% win rate] 90% complete
1D: Bullish chart pattern: Inverse Head & Shoulders (observed 29% (n=1743), close beyond boundary, near completion, aged 91b ×0.30) [83% win rate] 100% complete
1D: Bullish chart pattern: Triple Bottom (aged 5b ×0.56) [79% win rate] 6% complete
1D: Bullish chart pattern: Double Bottom (observed 24% (n=3020), aged 5b ×0.56) [72% win rate] 11% complete

Technical Indicators & Sentiment

Social Sentiment (Reddit + F&G + News)
NEUTRAL
Score: 50/100
Confidence: 0%
RSI (14)
35.89
ADX
26.43
Trend
DOWN
Structure
BREAK_UP
VWAP
$569.8500
MACD Hist
-2.32
Stoch K/D
16/13.48
ATR
$6.6700
BB Range
$555.8000 - $597.3400
Support
$556.4900
Resistance
$575.5000
Volume
SURGING
Rel Volume
3.26x
Vol POC
$632.6700
Fib 0.618
$588.3876

Order Flow UNAVAILABLE

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